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Earth’s thermosphere has experienced its highest temperature in nearly 20 years as a result of intense solar storms. These storms, caused by coronal mass ejections and solar wind from the sun, have led to a significant increase in the temperature of the thermosphere, which is the second-highest layer of the Earth’s atmosphere, according to a Live Science report. The temperature spike was measured using NASA’s Thermosphere Climate Index (TCI), reaching a peak of 0.24 terawatts (TW) on March 10. The last time such high temperatures were recorded was in 2003.
The consecutive geomagnetic storms in January and February were responsible for this temperature increase. Typically, infrared emissions after a storm cool down the thermosphere, but the continuous occurrence of storms maintained the elevated temperature levels. Since then, additional powerful geomagnetic storms have occurred, indicating that the warming trend is ongoing.
Scientists predict that the next solar maximum, a phase of heightened solar activity, will occur in 2025. This suggests that the warming trend in the thermosphere will persist for the next few years. However, these temperature changes pose challenges for satellites in low-Earth orbit, as the expanding and warming thermosphere increases aerodynamic drag on spacecraft. This increased drag can pull satellites closer to Earth, potentially leading to collisions or orbital instability.
Satellite operators attempt to mitigate these risks by adjusting the orbit of their spacecraft when necessary. However, the unpredictable nature of space weather makes it challenging to anticipate these maneuvers until it may be too late. Furthermore, recent research suggests that the solar activity peak could arrive earlier than expected, potentially exacerbating the satellite disaster risk.
Despite the short-term warming, studies indicate that over longer timescales, temperatures in the thermosphere are actually declining due to the presence of excess carbon dioxide (CO2) caused by climate change. This excess CO2 leads to increased infrared emissions into space, contributing to the cooling of the thermosphere.
In short, the recent temperature peak in the Earth’s thermosphere, driven by solar storms, has raised concerns regarding the impacts on Earth-orbiting satellites. While the thermosphere’s temperature is expected to continue rising in the coming years, long-term trends suggest a decline due to the effects of climate change.
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