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The Earth got lucky once again as it narrowly missed the incoming coronal mass ejection (CME) cloud and escaped what could have been a terrifying solar storm event. This is the third time in two months that the Earth has barely escaped being sideswiped by a CME wave. But how long can this luck actually last? That is what astronomers are wondering as six giant sunspots are facing the Earth. With such a high number of active regions on the Sun, it seems inevitable that one of them will blast a CME that can cause a solar storm of terrifying intensity. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has given its prediction, so let us take a look at that.
As per a SpaceWeather.com report, “With every visible sunspot in decay, NOAA forecasters have lowered the chances of solar flares today to 15% for M-class flares and only 1% for X-flares”. While this does indicate a lowered risk for a solar storm, it is not down to zero. The possibility of solar flare eruption also can cause some complications for the Earth.
Solar storm chances low, but solar flares can erupt today
It is a big coincidence that every single sunspot on the Earth-facing side of the Sun is currently decaying. However, it means that the Earth may see some more quiet days this week. But while that is all good, it should also not be forgotten that there is a 15 percent chance of an M-class solar flare eruption.
While it may seem like a small percentage, in reality, it is still concerning as our current technology restricts our ability to accurately predict solar storms and solar flare eruptions. What that means is our predictions are majorly based on historical data and patterns, and there is no empirical evidence for their certainty. And that is why both NOAA and NASA satellites are constantly monitoring the Sun even if there is a low probability of solar activity.
In the past, surprise solar storms have proven to be quite devastating, including the G4-class solar storm in April that forced oil rigs in Canada to stop their operations. Such solar storms are very potent and can damage satellites, disrupt mobile networks and internet services and even cause power grid failures.
Know how NOAA monitors the Sun
While many space agencies from NASA with its Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) keep track of Sun-based weather phenomena, one that particularly stands out is the DSCOVR satellite by NOAA. The satellite became operational in 2016 and tracks different measurements of the Sun and its atmosphere including temperature, speed, density, degree of orientation and frequency of the solar particles. The recovered data is then run through the Space Weather Prediction Center and the final analysis is prepared.
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